MKM
Murders at Karlov Manor
Murders at Karlov Manor Prerelease Promo Pack
▲
+0.45%
since last update
| Box EV $32.18 | Pack EV $5.36 | Packs per Box 6 | Last Updated May 29, 2025 |
Key Statistics
| Box Expected Value: |
$32.18
$20
$32
$44
|
|---|---|
| Pack Expected Value: |
$5.36
Deviation: ±$4.90
|
| Packs per Box: | 6 |
EV Trend
| Percent Change: |
▲
+0.45%
|
| Dollar Change: |
▲
+$0.15
|
Fee AnalysisFor TCGPlayer sales
| Sale Price (S): | $0.00 |
| Seller Fee: | -$0.00 (0.00%) |
| Net EV After Fees: | $0.00 |
Fee Visualization
Top-20 Value Contributors
| # | Card Name | $/Pack | $/Box | % Pack EV | % Box EV | Rarity | Foil? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Voja, Jaws of the Conclave | $1.55 | $9.29 | 28.9% | 28.9% | Mythic | Yes |
| 2 | Tomik, Wielder of Law | $0.30 | $1.80 | 5.6% | 5.6% | Mythic | Yes |
| 3 | Unknown Card | $0.19 | $1.14 | 3.5% | 3.5% | Unknown | Yes |
| 4 | Unknown Card | $0.18 | $1.08 | 3.4% | 3.4% | Unknown | Yes |
| 5 | Unknown Card | $0.18 | $1.05 | 3.3% | 3.3% | Unknown | Yes |
| 6 | Unknown Card | $0.18 | $1.07 | 3.3% | 3.3% | Unknown | Yes |
| 7 | Unknown Card | $0.17 | $0.99 | 3.1% | 3.1% | Unknown | Yes |
| 8 | Unknown Card | $0.17 | $1.02 | 3.2% | 3.2% | Unknown | Yes |
| 9 | Unknown Card | $0.17 | $1.03 | 3.2% | 3.2% | Unknown | Yes |
| 10 | Melek, Reforged Researcher | $0.16 | $0.94 | 2.9% | 2.9% | Mythic | Yes |
| 11 | Unknown Card | $0.14 | $0.86 | 2.7% | 2.7% | Unknown | Yes |
| 12 | Unknown Card | $0.14 | $0.83 | 2.6% | 2.6% | Unknown | Yes |
| 13 | Unknown Card | $0.13 | $0.77 | 2.4% | 2.4% | Unknown | Yes |
| 14 | Unknown Card | $0.11 | $0.67 | 2.1% | 2.1% | Unknown | Yes |
| 15 | Unknown Card | $0.11 | $0.64 | 2.0% | 2.0% | Unknown | Yes |
| 16 | Unknown Card | $0.11 | $0.65 | 2.0% | 2.0% | Unknown | Yes |
| 17 | Unknown Card | $0.11 | $0.66 | 2.0% | 2.0% | Unknown | Yes |
| 18 | Unknown Card | $0.09 | $0.55 | 1.7% | 1.7% | Unknown | Yes |
| 19 | Unknown Card | $0.09 | $0.53 | 1.6% | 1.6% | Unknown | Yes |
| 20 | Unknown Card | $0.06 | $0.34 | 1.1% | 1.1% | Unknown | Yes |
These top 20 cards contribute 80.5% of the box's total Expected Value.
Understanding EV Calculation & Trends
The Expected Value (EV) is calculated using a sophisticated stratified sampling simulation. This involves:
- Breaking down potential box contents into distinct groups (strata)
- Running hundreds of thousands of simulated pack openings
- Using an adaptive sampling process to ensure sufficient simulations per group for statistical accuracy
- Calculating the weighted average value based on current market prices
Variance & Confidence
The **Standard Deviation (±)** represents the typical fluctuation you might see in the value of individual boxes due to pack-to-pack randomness. While the simulation provides an estimate of the *average* outcome (EV), actual results will vary.
EV Trend Analysis
Trend values reflect the change in Box EV since the last data update:
- Green values indicate an increase.
- Red values indicate a decrease.
- Gray indicates no significant change.
Note: EV is a statistical expectation based on probabilities and market data. It's a powerful tool for analysis, but actual results from opening a box will vary due to randomness. Prices are sourced from TCGPlayer Market Prices (Normal/Foil) - Stratified Sampling.