MH3
Modern Horizons 3
Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster
▼
-0.74%
since last update
| Box EV $310.14 | Pack EV $8.61 | Packs per Box 36 | Last Updated Jun 7, 2025 |
Key Statistics
| Box Expected Value: |
$310.14
$261
$310
$359
|
|---|---|
| Pack Expected Value: |
$8.61
Deviation: ±$8.22
|
| Packs per Box: | 36 |
EV Trend
| Percent Change: |
▼
-0.74%
|
| Dollar Change: |
▼
$-2.30
|
Fee AnalysisFor TCGPlayer sales
| Sale Price (S): | $0.00 |
| Seller Fee: | -$0.00 (0.00%) |
| Net EV After Fees: | $0.00 |
Fee Visualization
Top-20 Value Contributors
| # | Card Name | $/Pack | $/Box | % Pack EV | % Box EV | Rarity | Foil? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ocelot Pride | $0.25 | $8.94 | 2.9% | 2.9% | Mythic | No |
| 2 | Consign to Memory | $0.18 | $6.54 | 2.1% | 2.1% | Uncommon | No |
| 3 | Sink into Stupor // Soporific Springs | $0.18 | $6.38 | 2.1% | 2.1% | Uncommon | No |
| 4 | Ugin's Labyrinth | $0.17 | $6.03 | 1.9% | 1.9% | Mythic | No |
| 5 | Kozilek's Command | $0.17 | $5.98 | 1.9% | 1.9% | Rare | No |
| 6 | Ulamog, the Defiler | $0.14 | $4.99 | 1.6% | 1.6% | Mythic | No |
| 7 | Warren Soultrader | $0.14 | $4.93 | 1.6% | 1.6% | Rare | No |
| 8 | Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student // Tamiyo, Seasoned Scholar | $0.14 | $5.20 | 1.7% | 1.7% | Mythic | No |
| 9 | Fanatic of Rhonas | $0.13 | $4.68 | 1.5% | 1.5% | Rare | No |
| 10 | Arena of Glory | $0.12 | $4.19 | 1.4% | 1.4% | Rare | No |
| 11 | Ripples of Undeath | $0.12 | $4.18 | 1.4% | 1.4% | Rare | No |
| 12 | Arena of Glory | $0.12 | $4.16 | 1.3% | 1.3% | Rare | No |
| 13 | Urza's Incubator | $0.12 | $4.21 | 1.4% | 1.4% | Rare | No |
| 14 | Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury | $0.11 | $3.78 | 1.2% | 1.2% | Mythic | No |
| 15 | Ugin's Labyrinth | $0.11 | $3.94 | 1.3% | 1.3% | Mythic | No |
| 16 | Polluted Delta | $0.10 | $3.59 | 1.2% | 1.2% | Rare | No |
| 17 | Fell the Profane // Fell Mire | $0.09 | $3.15 | 1.0% | 1.0% | Uncommon | No |
| 18 | Witch Enchanter // Witch-Blessed Meadow | $0.09 | $3.36 | 1.1% | 1.1% | Uncommon | No |
| 19 | Bloodstained Mire | $0.09 | $3.29 | 1.1% | 1.1% | Rare | Yes |
| 20 | Six | $0.09 | $3.19 | 1.0% | 1.0% | Rare | No |
These top 20 cards contribute 30.5% of the box's total Expected Value.
Understanding EV Calculation & Trends
The Expected Value (EV) is calculated using a sophisticated stratified sampling simulation. This involves:
- Breaking down potential box contents into distinct groups (strata)
- Running hundreds of thousands of simulated pack openings
- Using an adaptive sampling process to ensure sufficient simulations per group for statistical accuracy
- Calculating the weighted average value based on current market prices
Variance & Confidence
The **Standard Deviation (±)** represents the typical fluctuation you might see in the value of individual boxes due to pack-to-pack randomness. While the simulation provides an estimate of the *average* outcome (EV), actual results will vary.
EV Trend Analysis
Trend values reflect the change in Box EV since the last data update:
- Green values indicate an increase.
- Red values indicate a decrease.
- Gray indicates no significant change.
Note: EV is a statistical expectation based on probabilities and market data. It's a powerful tool for analysis, but actual results from opening a box will vary due to randomness. Prices are sourced from TCGPlayer Market Prices (Normal/Foil) - Stratified Sampling.