M21

Core Set 2021

Core Set 2021 Draft Booster

▼ -0.60%
since last update
Box EV $128.59 ±$34.67 Pack EV $3.57 ±$5.78 Packs per Box 36 Last Updated Jun 7, 2025

Key Statistics

Box Expected Value: $128.59
$94 $129 $163
Pack Expected Value: $3.57
Deviation: ±$5.78
Packs per Box: 36

EV Trend

Percent Change:
▼ -0.60%
Dollar Change:
▼ $-0.78

Fee AnalysisFor TCGPlayer sales

Sale Price (S): $0.00
Seller Fee: -$0.00 (0.00%)
Net EV After Fees: $0.00
Fee Visualization

Top-20 Value Contributors

#Card Name$/Pack$/Box% Pack EV% Box EVRarityFoil?
1 Terror of the Peaks $0.32 $11.53 9.0% 9.0% Mythic No
2 Chromatic Orrery $0.25 $9.11 7.1% 7.1% Mythic No
3 Heroic Intervention $0.20 $7.21 5.6% 5.6% Rare Yes
4 Grim Tutor $0.19 $6.77 5.3% 5.3% Mythic No
5 Azusa, Lost but Seeking $0.14 $5.01 3.9% 3.9% Rare No
6 Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose $0.12 $4.40 3.4% 3.4% Rare No
7 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon $0.10 $3.45 2.7% 2.7% Mythic No
8 Fabled Passage $0.09 $3.17 2.5% 2.5% Rare No
9 Fiery Emancipation $0.08 $2.72 2.1% 2.1% Mythic No
10 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon $0.07 $2.53 2.0% 2.0% Mythic No
11 Conspicuous Snoop $0.07 $2.45 1.9% 1.9% Rare No
12 Grim Tutor $0.06 $2.16 1.7% 1.7% Mythic No
13 Peer into the Abyss $0.05 $1.91 1.5% 1.5% Rare No
14 Miscast $0.05 $1.82 1.4% 1.4% Uncommon No
15 Palladium Myr $0.05 $1.63 1.3% 1.3% Uncommon No
16 Elder Gargaroth $0.05 $1.63 1.3% 1.3% Mythic No
17 Sublime Epiphany $0.04 $1.57 1.2% 1.2% Rare No
18 Animal Sanctuary $0.03 $1.23 1.0% 1.0% Rare No
19 Baneslayer Angel $0.03 $1.08 0.8% 0.8% Mythic No
20 Cultivate $0.03 $1.01 0.8% 0.8% Rare Yes

These top 20 cards contribute 56.3% of the box's total Expected Value.

Understanding EV Calculation & Trends

The Expected Value (EV) is calculated using a sophisticated stratified sampling simulation. This involves:

  • Breaking down potential box contents into distinct groups (strata)
  • Running hundreds of thousands of simulated pack openings
  • Using an adaptive sampling process to ensure sufficient simulations per group for statistical accuracy
  • Calculating the weighted average value based on current market prices

Variance & Confidence

The **Standard Deviation (±)** represents the typical fluctuation you might see in the value of individual boxes due to pack-to-pack randomness. While the simulation provides an estimate of the *average* outcome (EV), actual results will vary.

EV Trend Analysis

Trend values reflect the change in Box EV since the last data update:

  • Green values indicate an increase.
  • Red values indicate a decrease.
  • Gray indicates no significant change.