M21

Core Set 2021

Core Set 2021 Collector Booster

▲ +0.02%
since last update
Box EV $239.91 ±$46.34 Pack EV $19.99 ±$13.38 Packs per Box 12 Last Updated Jun 7, 2025

Key Statistics

Box Expected Value: $239.91
$194 $240 $286
Pack Expected Value: $19.99
Deviation: ±$13.38
Packs per Box: 12

EV Trend

Percent Change:
▲ +0.02%
Dollar Change:
▲ +$0.06

Fee AnalysisFor TCGPlayer sales

Sale Price (S): $0.00
Seller Fee: -$0.00 (0.00%)
Net EV After Fees: $0.00
Fee Visualization

Top-20 Value Contributors

#Card Name$/Pack$/Box% Pack EV% Box EVRarityFoil?
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon $1.03 $12.34 5.1% 5.1% Mythic No
2 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon $0.95 $11.39 4.8% 4.8% Mythic No
3 Grim Tutor $0.71 $8.57 3.6% 3.6% Mythic Yes
4 Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose $0.51 $6.14 2.6% 2.6% Rare Yes
5 Chromatic Orrery $0.51 $6.12 2.5% 2.5% Mythic No
6 Heroic Intervention $0.47 $5.60 2.3% 2.3% Rare Yes
7 Teferi, Master of Time $0.46 $5.54 2.3% 2.3% Mythic No
8 Terror of the Peaks $0.46 $5.49 2.3% 2.3% Mythic No
9 Chromatic Orrery $0.43 $5.14 2.1% 2.1% Mythic Yes
10 Terror of the Peaks $0.43 $5.14 2.1% 2.1% Mythic Yes
11 Peer into the Abyss $0.39 $4.72 2.0% 2.0% Rare No
12 Massacre Wurm $0.36 $4.37 1.8% 1.8% Mythic No
13 Azusa, Lost but Seeking $0.34 $4.08 1.7% 1.7% Rare Yes
14 Cultivate $0.32 $3.85 1.6% 1.6% Rare No
15 Teferi, Master of Time $0.31 $3.73 1.6% 1.6% Mythic No
16 Liliana, Waker of the Dead $0.30 $3.62 1.5% 1.5% Mythic No
17 Swamp $0.29 $3.44 1.4% 1.4% Common Yes
18 Elder Gargaroth $0.29 $3.46 1.4% 1.4% Mythic No
19 Heroic Intervention $0.29 $3.46 1.4% 1.4% Rare Yes
20 Ghostly Pilferer $0.27 $3.20 1.3% 1.3% Rare No

These top 20 cards contribute 45.6% of the box's total Expected Value.

Understanding EV Calculation & Trends

The Expected Value (EV) is calculated using a sophisticated stratified sampling simulation. This involves:

  • Breaking down potential box contents into distinct groups (strata)
  • Running hundreds of thousands of simulated pack openings
  • Using an adaptive sampling process to ensure sufficient simulations per group for statistical accuracy
  • Calculating the weighted average value based on current market prices

Variance & Confidence

The **Standard Deviation (±)** represents the typical fluctuation you might see in the value of individual boxes due to pack-to-pack randomness. While the simulation provides an estimate of the *average* outcome (EV), actual results will vary.

EV Trend Analysis

Trend values reflect the change in Box EV since the last data update:

  • Green values indicate an increase.
  • Red values indicate a decrease.
  • Gray indicates no significant change.