GTC

Gatecrash

Gatecrash Prerelease Pack Orzhov

▲ +0.04%
since last update
Box EV $21.23 ±$8.95 Pack EV $3.54 ±$3.65 Packs per Box 6 Last Updated May 29, 2025

Key Statistics

Box Expected Value: $21.23
$12 $21 $30
Pack Expected Value: $3.54
Deviation: ±$3.65
Packs per Box: 6

EV Trend

Percent Change:
▲ +0.04%
Dollar Change:
▲ +$0.01

Fee AnalysisFor TCGPlayer sales

Sale Price (S): $0.00
Seller Fee: -$0.00 (0.00%)
Net EV After Fees: $0.00
Fee Visualization

Top-20 Value Contributors

#Card Name$/Pack$/Box% Pack EV% Box EVRarityFoil?
1 Godless Shrine $0.92 $5.53 26.1% 26.1% Rare No
2 Crypt Ghast $0.45 $2.71 12.8% 12.8% Rare No
3 Illusionist's Bracers $0.24 $1.44 6.8% 6.8% Rare No
4 Blind Obedience $0.14 $0.83 3.9% 3.9% Rare No
5 Angelic Skirmisher $0.13 $0.78 3.7% 3.7% Rare No
6 Thespian's Stage $0.09 $0.53 2.5% 2.5% Rare No
7 Thrull Parasite $0.08 $0.50 2.4% 2.4% Uncommon No
8 Glaring Spotlight $0.08 $0.51 2.4% 2.4% Rare No
9 Sepulchral Primordial $0.08 $0.46 2.2% 2.2% Rare No
10 Vizkopa Guildmage $0.06 $0.34 1.6% 1.6% Uncommon No
11 Basilica Screecher $0.05 $0.31 1.4% 1.4% Common No
12 Contaminated Ground $0.04 $0.25 1.2% 1.2% Common No
13 Holy Mantle $0.04 $0.22 1.0% 1.0% Uncommon No
14 Orzhov Guildgate $0.04 $0.22 1.0% 1.0% Common No
15 Prophetic Prism $0.04 $0.23 1.1% 1.1% Common No
16 Shadow Alley Denizen $0.04 $0.21 1.0% 1.0% Common No
17 Corpse Blockade $0.03 $0.18 0.8% 0.8% Common No
18 Razortip Whip $0.03 $0.18 0.8% 0.8% Common No
19 Smite $0.03 $0.16 0.8% 0.8% Common No
20 Court Street Denizen $0.03 $0.19 0.9% 0.9% Common No

These top 20 cards contribute 74.4% of the box's total Expected Value.

Understanding EV Calculation & Trends

The Expected Value (EV) is calculated using a sophisticated stratified sampling simulation. This involves:

  • Breaking down potential box contents into distinct groups (strata)
  • Running hundreds of thousands of simulated pack openings
  • Using an adaptive sampling process to ensure sufficient simulations per group for statistical accuracy
  • Calculating the weighted average value based on current market prices

Variance & Confidence

The **Standard Deviation (±)** represents the typical fluctuation you might see in the value of individual boxes due to pack-to-pack randomness. While the simulation provides an estimate of the *average* outcome (EV), actual results will vary.

EV Trend Analysis

Trend values reflect the change in Box EV since the last data update:

  • Green values indicate an increase.
  • Red values indicate a decrease.
  • Gray indicates no significant change.