FRF
Fate Reforged
Fate Reforged Draft Booster
▼
-0.65%
since last update
| Box EV $101.55 | Pack EV $2.82 | Packs per Box 36 | Last Updated May 29, 2025 |
Key Statistics
| Box Expected Value: |
$101.55
$81
$102
$122
|
|---|---|
| Pack Expected Value: |
$2.82
Deviation: ±$3.43
|
| Packs per Box: | 36 |
EV Trend
| Percent Change: |
▼
-0.65%
|
| Dollar Change: |
▼
$-0.66
|
Fee AnalysisFor TCGPlayer sales
| Sale Price (S): | $0.00 |
| Seller Fee: | -$0.00 (0.00%) |
| Net EV After Fees: | $0.00 |
Fee Visualization
Top-20 Value Contributors
| # | Card Name | $/Pack | $/Box | % Pack EV | % Box EV | Rarity | Foil? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dark Deal | $0.28 | $10.25 | 10.1% | 10.1% | Uncommon | No |
| 2 | Ugin, the Spirit Dragon | $0.22 | $7.86 | 7.7% | 7.7% | Mythic | No |
| 3 | Unknown Card | $0.13 | $4.55 | 4.5% | 4.5% | Unknown | No |
| 4 | Unknown Card | $0.11 | $4.12 | 4.0% | 4.0% | Unknown | No |
| 5 | Unknown Card | $0.10 | $3.55 | 3.5% | 3.5% | Unknown | No |
| 6 | Unknown Card | $0.10 | $3.46 | 3.4% | 3.4% | Unknown | No |
| 7 | Crux of Fate | $0.09 | $3.14 | 3.1% | 3.1% | Rare | No |
| 8 | Archfiend of Depravity | $0.08 | $3.04 | 3.0% | 3.0% | Rare | No |
| 9 | Unknown Card | $0.08 | $2.93 | 2.9% | 2.9% | Unknown | No |
| 10 | Temur Sabertooth | $0.06 | $2.10 | 2.1% | 2.1% | Uncommon | No |
| 11 | Refocus | $0.05 | $1.80 | 1.8% | 1.8% | Common | No |
| 12 | Temporal Trespass | $0.05 | $1.87 | 1.8% | 1.8% | Mythic | No |
| 13 | Monastery Siege | $0.05 | $1.91 | 1.9% | 1.9% | Rare | No |
| 14 | Temur Battle Rage | $0.04 | $1.39 | 1.4% | 1.4% | Common | No |
| 15 | Monastery Mentor | $0.04 | $1.46 | 1.4% | 1.4% | Mythic | No |
| 16 | Jeskai Barricade | $0.03 | $1.16 | 1.1% | 1.1% | Uncommon | No |
| 17 | Brutal Hordechief | $0.03 | $1.23 | 1.2% | 1.2% | Mythic | No |
| 18 | Silumgar, the Drifting Death | $0.03 | $1.01 | 1.0% | 1.0% | Rare | No |
| 19 | Arcbond | $0.03 | $1.07 | 1.1% | 1.1% | Rare | No |
| 20 | Crucible of the Spirit Dragon | $0.03 | $1.05 | 1.0% | 1.0% | Rare | No |
These top 20 cards contribute 58.1% of the box's total Expected Value.
Understanding EV Calculation & Trends
The Expected Value (EV) is calculated using a sophisticated stratified sampling simulation. This involves:
- Breaking down potential box contents into distinct groups (strata)
- Running hundreds of thousands of simulated pack openings
- Using an adaptive sampling process to ensure sufficient simulations per group for statistical accuracy
- Calculating the weighted average value based on current market prices
Variance & Confidence
The **Standard Deviation (±)** represents the typical fluctuation you might see in the value of individual boxes due to pack-to-pack randomness. While the simulation provides an estimate of the *average* outcome (EV), actual results will vary.
EV Trend Analysis
Trend values reflect the change in Box EV since the last data update:
- Green values indicate an increase.
- Red values indicate a decrease.
- Gray indicates no significant change.
Note: EV is a statistical expectation based on probabilities and market data. It's a powerful tool for analysis, but actual results from opening a box will vary due to randomness. Prices are sourced from TCGPlayer Market Prices (Normal/Foil) - Stratified Sampling.