CNS

Conspiracy

Conspiracy Draft Booster

▲ +0.07%
since last update
Box EV $257.58 ±$33.80 Pack EV $7.15 ±$5.63 Packs per Box 36 Last Updated May 29, 2025

Key Statistics

Box Expected Value: $257.58
$224 $258 $291
Pack Expected Value: $7.15
Deviation: ±$5.63
Packs per Box: 36

EV Trend

Percent Change:
▲ +0.07%
Dollar Change:
▲ +$0.18

Fee AnalysisFor TCGPlayer sales

Sale Price (S): $0.00
Seller Fee: -$0.00 (0.00%)
Net EV After Fees: $0.00
Fee Visualization

Top-20 Value Contributors

#Card Name$/Pack$/Box% Pack EV% Box EVRarityFoil?
1 Exploration $0.55 $19.95 7.7% 7.7% Rare No
2 Mana Geyser $0.44 $15.93 6.2% 6.2% Common No
3 Brainstorm $0.43 $15.52 6.0% 6.0% Common No
4 Treasonous Ogre $0.43 $15.53 6.0% 6.0% Uncommon No
5 Altar of Dementia $0.33 $12.05 4.7% 4.7% Rare No
6 Stifle $0.29 $10.40 4.0% 4.0% Rare No
7 Reflecting Pool $0.20 $7.09 2.8% 2.8% Rare No
8 Silent Arbiter $0.19 $6.69 2.6% 2.6% Rare No
9 Vedalken Orrery $0.17 $6.02 2.3% 2.3% Rare No
10 Wrap in Vigor $0.15 $5.27 2.0% 2.0% Common No
11 Misdirection $0.15 $5.56 2.2% 2.2% Rare No
12 Nature's Claim $0.15 $5.57 2.2% 2.2% Common No
13 Tyrant's Choice $0.15 $5.52 2.1% 2.1% Common No
14 Phage the Untouchable $0.15 $5.31 2.1% 2.1% Mythic No
15 Deathrender $0.14 $5.08 2.0% 2.0% Rare No
16 Reya Dawnbringer $0.13 $4.62 1.8% 1.8% Rare No
17 Coercive Portal $0.10 $3.55 1.4% 1.4% Mythic No
18 Sakura-Tribe Elder $0.09 $3.30 1.3% 1.3% Common No
19 Brago, King Eternal $0.09 $3.13 1.2% 1.2% Rare Yes
20 Swords to Plowshares $0.08 $2.78 1.1% 1.1% Uncommon No

These top 20 cards contribute 61.7% of the box's total Expected Value.

Understanding EV Calculation & Trends

The Expected Value (EV) is calculated using a sophisticated stratified sampling simulation. This involves:

  • Breaking down potential box contents into distinct groups (strata)
  • Running hundreds of thousands of simulated pack openings
  • Using an adaptive sampling process to ensure sufficient simulations per group for statistical accuracy
  • Calculating the weighted average value based on current market prices

Variance & Confidence

The **Standard Deviation (±)** represents the typical fluctuation you might see in the value of individual boxes due to pack-to-pack randomness. While the simulation provides an estimate of the *average* outcome (EV), actual results will vary.

EV Trend Analysis

Trend values reflect the change in Box EV since the last data update:

  • Green values indicate an increase.
  • Red values indicate a decrease.
  • Gray indicates no significant change.