AFR

Adventures in the Forgotten Realms

Adventures in the Forgotten Realms Draft Booster

▲ +0.71%
since last update
Box EV $127.66 ±$32.84 Pack EV $3.55 ±$5.47 Packs per Box 36 Last Updated Jun 7, 2025

Key Statistics

Box Expected Value: $127.66
$95 $128 $161
Pack Expected Value: $3.55
Deviation: ±$5.47
Packs per Box: 36

EV Trend

Percent Change:
▲ +0.71%
Dollar Change:
▲ +$0.90

Fee AnalysisFor TCGPlayer sales

Sale Price (S): $0.00
Seller Fee: -$0.00 (0.00%)
Net EV After Fees: $0.00
Fee Visualization

Top-20 Value Contributors

#Card Name$/Pack$/Box% Pack EV% Box EVRarityFoil?
1 Old Gnawbone $0.28 $10.06 7.9% 7.9% Mythic No
2 Teleportation Circle $0.14 $5.04 4.0% 4.0% Rare No
3 Old Gnawbone $0.14 $4.97 3.9% 3.9% Mythic No
4 Fighter Class $0.13 $4.58 3.6% 3.6% Rare No
5 Tiamat $0.13 $4.68 3.7% 3.7% Mythic No
6 Unexpected Windfall $0.11 $4.03 3.1% 3.1% Common No
7 Delina, Wild Mage $0.10 $3.69 2.9% 2.9% Rare No
8 Circle of Dreams Druid $0.09 $3.30 2.6% 2.6% Rare No
9 Tiamat $0.09 $3.28 2.6% 2.6% Mythic No
10 Druid Class $0.07 $2.49 1.9% 1.9% Uncommon No
11 Feign Death $0.07 $2.46 1.9% 1.9% Common No
12 Cleric Class $0.06 $2.12 1.7% 1.7% Uncommon No
13 Delina, Wild Mage $0.06 $2.27 1.8% 1.8% Rare No
14 Guardian of Faith $0.06 $2.22 1.7% 1.7% Rare No
15 Deadly Dispute $0.05 $1.68 1.3% 1.3% Common No
16 Xorn $0.05 $1.90 1.5% 1.5% Rare No
17 Shambling Ghast $0.05 $1.62 1.3% 1.3% Common No
18 Wizard Class $0.05 $1.75 1.4% 1.4% Uncommon No
19 Hobgoblin Bandit Lord $0.05 $1.72 1.4% 1.4% Rare Yes
20 Tasha's Hideous Laughter $0.05 $1.71 1.3% 1.3% Rare No

These top 20 cards contribute 51.4% of the box's total Expected Value.

Understanding EV Calculation & Trends

The Expected Value (EV) is calculated using a sophisticated stratified sampling simulation. This involves:

  • Breaking down potential box contents into distinct groups (strata)
  • Running hundreds of thousands of simulated pack openings
  • Using an adaptive sampling process to ensure sufficient simulations per group for statistical accuracy
  • Calculating the weighted average value based on current market prices

Variance & Confidence

The **Standard Deviation (±)** represents the typical fluctuation you might see in the value of individual boxes due to pack-to-pack randomness. While the simulation provides an estimate of the *average* outcome (EV), actual results will vary.

EV Trend Analysis

Trend values reflect the change in Box EV since the last data update:

  • Green values indicate an increase.
  • Red values indicate a decrease.
  • Gray indicates no significant change.